It's the day after the election, and I wanted to share some thoughts about the results in Vernon-Lake Country-Monashee.
The polls were remarkably accurate
First, the poll projections were spot on—they projected:
- 49% for Scott Anderson (he got 50.5%)
- 42% for Anna Warwick Sears (she got almost 43%)
- 5% for the NDP (they got 5.1%)
- 3% for the Greens (they ended up with 1.6%)
Anna ran a great campaign
Anna Warwick Sears ran an outstanding campaign. She showed that if you create a "big tent" politically and assemble a coalition of voters across the spectrum, you can challenge the incumbent party.
But the truth is, in this riding, it's difficult to overcome the power of the conservative brand. We've seen this pattern hold for 32 years straight!
How people vote in federal elections
In federal elections, people generally vote based on three things:
- The federal leader
- The party brand (Conservative, Liberal, NDP, Green)
- The local candidate
For most voters, they're primarily voting for either the national leader or the brand. You hear it all the time: "My family always votes Conservative" or "I think Liberals represent this thing that I don't like."
Even with a stellar local candidate, it's difficult to overcome that momentum.
Why people voted Conservative
People vote Conservative for various reasons. Some are social Conservatives who might be religious and feel the Conservative Party better embodies their values.
But there's also a big group just struggling financially right now. The cost of groceries, housing, and gas are things they think about every day. For many of those folks, people voting Liberal felt like a betrayal: "How could you vote for them after what they did to us financially?"
I don't fault them for that at all. This affordability crisis we're facing has been shaped by global events during the pandemic, not just government policy. We saw similar reactions all around the world with incumbent governments. But people have every right to be upset and to want relief.
The numbers are clear
Even if 100% of Liberal, NDP, and Green voters had united, they couldn't defeat the Conservatives in this riding. Scott Anderson won by 5,138 more votes than Anna Warwick Sears.
Looking ahead
This new government—Liberals, Conservatives, a few NDP, a few Bloc—has two big challenges ahead:
- Dealing with massive external threats from the US
- Addressing our affordability crisis
Until they solve that second problem, voters will remain angry and frustrated, because people just want to have a good life.
Paths forward for those seeking change
If your desire is to see different representation here in Vernon–Lake Country–Monashee, there are two potential paths forward:
- Build bridges with Conservative voters. It's very possible that there's a contingent of "Conservative" voters whose top 3 issues matched those of Liberal, NDP, and Green voters. While some folks will always vote ideologically, many had legitimate concerns about affordability and blamed the Liberals. The path forward is to convince those 5,138 voters there's a better option by the next election.
- Increase voter turnout. Nationally, voter turnout was 68.6% this election (our best turnout since 1993). Typically, young adults (aged 18–34), recent immigrants, low-income individuals, and folks on disability vote at a lower rate. Another path would be to attract voters who don't typically participate.
These challenging problems will require good leadership and a cooperative coalition from all parties. But it starts with understanding why people voted the way they did.
